Thailand’s rice export outlook for the coming year is clouded by several challenges, including a strong baht and increased competition from India. Experts predict that exports will likely fall below 8 million tonnes in 2025, influenced by these risk factors.
Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, remains optimistic about this year’s performance, stating that despite ongoing flooding in northern and northeastern regions, it is not expected to hinder exports. The association anticipates exceeding its annual export target of 8.2 million tonnes this year, with projections suggesting a total of up to 9 million tonnes if the monthly average remains at 600,000 tonnes.
However, the competitive landscape is shifting. Thai rice prices have struggled to meet tender prices set by Indonesia’s Bulog, as cheaper alternatives from Vietnam, Myanmar, and Pakistan have gained traction. The recent improvement in rice production across these countries, bolstered by favorable weather conditions during the La Niña phenomenon, has further intensified competition in the global market.
India’s potential return to white rice exports in the fourth quarter of this year poses an additional threat to Thai rice sales. The Indian government has signaled plans to lift export restrictions, which could lead to a decrease in global rice prices and put further pressure on Thai domestic prices.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that India will continue to dominate the global rice export market through 2025, with shipments projected at 20 million tonnes. In contrast, Thailand’s exports are expected to decline to between 7 million and 7.5 million tonnes due to the stronger baht and increased competition.
Despite these challenges, Thailand’s rice export figures have shown positive trends this year. In the first seven months of 2024, exports rose by 22% year-on-year, generating significant revenue of 132 billion baht—a 51% increase from the previous year. This growth has been driven largely by importers seeking to secure rice for consumption and stockpiling amid India’s ongoing export restrictions.
Deputy Commerce Minister Suchart Chomklin recently emphasized the importance of promoting local rice markets and enhancing confidence among trading partners during the Thai Rice Networking Forum 2024. As Thailand navigates these complex market dynamics, stakeholders remain vigilant in adapting strategies to maintain competitiveness in the global rice trade.
